DW: Защо "Турски поток" е успех за България и провал за Русия

За Кремъл "Турски поток" се превърна в стратегически провал. Другояче изглеждат нещата за Турция и България - те могат да бъдат много доволни.

ладимир Путин и Реджеп Ердоган отбелязаха официалния старт на газопровода "Турски поток" с помпозност, която е обичайна за по-източните страни. Двамата лидери, които особено обичат да се наслаждават на победи и успешни финали, си устроиха пищно тържество с гръмки речи, посветени на формалното приключване на проекта.
 
А приключването наистина е само формално, защото за руската страна газопроводът изобщо не е завършен - нищо, че у зрителите на големите руски телевизионни канали може би е възникнало обратното впечатление. Фактът е, че от двете тръби на "Турски поток" засега само една изпълнява изцяло предназначението си - тази, която снабдява турските потребители, пише Андрей Гурков за "Дойче веле".
 
Втората тръба, която трябва да транспортира газ към основния пазар на Газпром - страните от ЕС, досега не предлага съпоставимо по мощност продължение на територията на Евросъюза и още поне година и половина ще работи с много снижен капацитет.
 
Откриха "Турски поток" с официална церемония, България транзитира газ за Гърция и Македония
 
Триумф за Ердоган
 
Неслучайно Ердоган толкова много се наслаждаваше на церемонията и беше доста по-словоохотлив от московския си гост. Това си беше празник на турския президент. Той получи всичко, което искаше - нова-новеничка тръба за пряко снабдяване с руски газ на развитата, европейска част от Турция - без междинни страни, без транзитни коридори и транзитни рискове, че на всичкото отгоре и с голяма отстъпка.
 
Така че в Истанбул на Путин му се наложи да се усмихва доста насилено, след като геополитическата газова игра се разви толкова неудовлетворително за него. Сега всеки се пита: Защо Газпром беше принуден по разпореждане на президента да хвърли огромни пари за изграждането на "Турски поток"?
 
Главната задача беше от януари 2020 година изцяло да спре транзитът на газ през Украйна, а руските енергийни доставки към ЕС да потеглят по две нови магистрали, заобикалящи непокорния съсед. Тъкмо с тази цел "Северен поток" и "Турски поток" се изграждаха паралелно, за да влязат в експлоатация до края на 2019 година, когато изтече десетгодишният руско-украински газов договор.
 
Но "Северен поток" по различни причини изостана от графика, а после беше и спрян от американските санкции. А от двете тръби под Черно море в пълен обем и в срок проработи само едната.
 
Защо САЩ са против "Турски поток" през България
 
При това работата не е там, че някакви тръби не са били положени в срок - рано или късно и това ще стане. За Кремъл стратегическият провал се състои в това, че така и не успя да лиши Украйна от газовия транзит и се наложи да сключва с Киев нов дългосрочен договор. Този договор гарантира на Украйна още пет години доста интензивен газов транзит и добро възнаграждение за услугата, плюс еднократно плащане от 3 милиарда долара по стари сметки.
 
Вярно, за Газпром от търговска гледна точка този вариант изобщо не е лош: концернът получи възможност и юридически гаранции за продължаване на експлоатацията на своя най-важен и изпитан през десетилетията експортен канал. И все пак, след сключването на новия руско-украински договор за транзит отново и още по-остро възниква въпросът: Тогава защо изобщо беше изграждан скъпо струващият "Турски поток"? Особено пък в сегашния му окастрен вид.
 
Нека да припомним: на 1 декември 2014 година, след среща с Ердоган в Анкара, неочаквано за всички Путин обяви, че няма да се изгражда газопроводът "Южен поток" през България. И обясни, че четирите тръби на този газопровод сМалко по-късно обаче турският президент наруши постигнатата договорка и поиска да бъдат съкратени две от тръбите на новия газопровод, който вече носеше името "Турски поток".
е пренасочват към Турция.
В крайна сметка Ердоган получи "своята тръба", а на Газпром вместо три тръби за износ към ЕС му остана само една. Така мощностите за милиарди рубли, изградени на територията на Русия с цел да захранват "Южен поток", се оказаха частично ненужни. А това едва ли може да се нарече голям стратегически успех за Путин.
 
Отмениха "Южен поток", но главният транзит пак ще минава през България
 
Изцяло се провали и намерението на Путин да накаже опърничавата България, като принуди ЕС да прокара втората тръба за "Турски поток" през Гърция към Италия. Тази идея, пръкнала се в Москва, от самото начало си беше чиста авантюра. Още в края на 2014 прогнозирахме, че България в крайна сметка ще получи своите транзитни милиони.
 
Както се и случи: основният газопровод, по който руското синьо гориво ще потече към Сърбия, Унгария и Словакия, в момента се строи в България. Газът за Гърция и Северна Македония също ще идва от България. Така че Газпром всъщност поправя грешката, която Путин допусна с "Южен поток".
 
Концернът продължи до 2030 година договора с българската страна за газов транзит. За изпълнението на този договор (а очевидно и за поддържането на втората тръба в работен режим) сега Газпром прибягва към една твърде своеобразна процедура. За нея в началото на януари съобщиха редица руски медии, в това число и "Интерфакс": газът от "Турски поток" се насочва към България, а после около половината от целия обем се връща в Турция през друг приемателно-предавателен пункт.
 
Борисов: България ще закупи 20% от газовия терминал в Александруполис
 
Трудно е да си представим, че един толкова екстравагантен начин за транспортиране на горивото би могъл да бъде търговски изгоден за Газпром. А според същото съобщение на "Интерфакс", българският газов дистрибутор Булгаргаз през тази година разчита на десетки милиони евро печалба от новите договорки. Българското министерство на енергетиката информира, че цените на газа за българските потребители могат да се снижат с 5% още през първото тримесечие на тази година.
 
Това толкова тясно руско-българско сътрудничество опровергава порочно загнездилия се мит в руските медии, че навремето "Южен поток" се е провалил именно поради съпротивата на България под натиска на ЕС и САЩ. Че как ли сега успяха все пак да се договорят, при положение че позициите на Брюксел и Вашингтон днес са дори още по-рестриктивни? Ако преди 5-6 години Москва беше поискала реално да се договори със София, без да се опитва да заобиколи европейските правила (на които сега е съгласна да се подчинява), може би тогава нямаше да се наложи да се взима обходният транзитен маршрут през Турция.
 
Рано или късно на руснаците ще им се наложи да обсъдят смисъла и безсмислието на "Турски поток". Особено ако геополитическите планове на Кремъл се сблъскат в Сирия, Либия или другаде с нарастващите имперски амбиции на новата транзитна страна за руския газ - Турция.

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